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162,000 jobs, one CPI print to go
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Sep 7, 2026, 11:15 AM (1 day ago)
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Open Markets - 7 September 2026
Hike talk is back. Friday settles it.
•
Payrolls beat by three times: August jobs came in at 162,000 against a 53,000 forecast, lifting September hike pricing to about 58%.
•
Brent leads the strip: Oil has added roughly 12% since 25 August after US strikes on three Iranian tankers.
•
CPI, Friday: August inflation lands at 12:30 UTC, the last reading the Fed sees before it meets.
US 500
7,719.06
▲ +0.26%
BRENT
$95.83
▲ +6.24%
GOLD
$4,403.76
▼ -1.02%
EUR/USD
1.16102
▼ -0.06%
Change over the past week, to 7 Sep 2026, 06:00 UTC
1. Good jobs news lands badly
The US 500 closed last week at 7,715.39, almost exactly where it started, but the path there was not calm. It dipped early as oil climbed on Middle East hostilities, recovered midweek when Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he could support holding rates, then gave it all back on Friday's payrolls. With the Fed weighing a hike rather than a cut, strong labour data is now the hawkish outcome, and the index is holding a level that assumes inflation cools. Friday's CPI tests that assumption directly.
US 500 holds a tightening range
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS
Core inflation cools further: A softer core reading eases hike pricing and puts 7,781.49 back within reach.
Inflation holds above target: A firm print hardens hike expectations and exposes the 7,633.39 floor.
LEVELS TO WATCH
us 500 • around 7,719.06
▲ 7,781.49 — First resistance
The weekly pivot resistance; the index has not closed above it since mid-August
Brent trades near $95.83, roughly 12% since its 25 August low of 85.75. US forces targeted three Iranian oil tankers over the weekend in retaliation for missile attacks on Navy warships, and Tehran responded by declaring a new restricted zone outside the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs has flagged the risk of $120 oil if attacks on shipping intensify. Energy is the channel feeding Friday's inflation print, which ties this market to CPI as much as to supply. OPEC's monthly report lands on Thursday at 10:00 UTC.
Brent rebuilds its war premium
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS
Hormuz disruption deepens: Further strikes and constrained flows keep the premium priced in, putting $97.56 in range.
Flows through Hormuz stabilise: Evidence that crude is still reaching the market erodes the premium and tests $93.05.
LEVELS TO WATCH
brent oil • around $95.83
▲ $97.56 — First resistance
The weekly R1, above last week's 96.15 high.
▼ $93.05 — Nearest support
The weekly pivot, the level Brent cleared on 1 September.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise its deposit rate by 25bp to 2.50% on Thursday. That leaves the euro's reaction resting on communication rather than the decision. The ECB has argued that energy supply accounts for around 90% of this year's inflation episode, pointing to a measured response rather than a move into restrictive territory. EUR/USD has compressed between its weekly pivots since late August, and it meets the ECB on Thursday and US CPI on Friday within 24 hours.
The euro compresses before the ECB
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS
Lagarde signals more tightening: Guidance that leaves further hikes open lifts European rate expectations and pressures 1.16469.
US inflation runs hot: A firm CPI widens the expected rate gap in the dollar's favour and pulls the pair towards 1.15720.
LEVELS TO WATCH
eur/usd • around 1.16102
▲ 1.16469 — First resistance
The weekly R1, which capped the pair on 3 September.
▼ 1.15720 — Nearest support
The weekly S1, which held on the 2 September low of 1.15658.
Gold ran to 4,658.59 on 25 August, fell to 4,328.07 by 1 September, and now trades near 4,403.76, down more than 5% from the peak. Two forces pull against each other. Central-bank diversification supports the price, and Goldman Sachs Research forecasts $4,900 by year-end on exactly that. Rising real yields work the other way, raising the cost of holding an asset that pays nothing. For three weeks, the yields side has won. Friday's CPI decides which force sets the tone.
Gold slips back below its pivot
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS
Hike pricing fades: A softer CPI pulls real yields lower and restores the case for holding gold, with 4,533.27 the level above.
Real yields keep climbing: A firm print reinforces hike pricing and extends the slide towards 4,304.89.
LEVELS TO WATCH
gold • around 4,403.76
▲ 4,533.27 — First resistance
The weekly R1, last cleared on 26 August.
▼ 4,304.89 — Nearest support
The weekly S1, just under the 4,282.45 low of 2 September.
All four markets are trading the same question from different angles: whether inflation cools enough to keep a central bank that has stopped talking about cuts from acting. Equities are priced as though it does, gold is already priced as though it does not, and oil is adding to the inflation problem that raised the question in the first place. Friday's CPI is the only release this week that can answer it. Everything before Friday is positioning; everything after is repricing.
Three dates to watch
Thursday 10 Sep — ECB rate decision (12:15 UTC)
A 25bp hike to a 2.50% deposit rate is near-universally expected, so Lagarde's 12:45 UTC press conference is what moves the euro.
Thursday 10 Sep — US producer prices, August (12:30 UTC)
Forecast at 0.3% month on month against 0% previously. PPI feeds parts of the Fed's preferred gauge, setting the tone 24 hours before CPI.
Friday 11 Sep — US consumer prices, August (12:30 UTC)
Headline inflation is forecast to hold at 3.4% year on year with core easing to 2.4% from 2.5%. The last inflation reading before the Fed meets.
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